Tuesday, July 3, 2012

GBP/USD: fundamental and technical comments - July 3 2012

Tuesday, July 3, 2012
 
GBP/USD keeps consolidating on the hourly chart between $1.5650 and $1.5720.
On the positive side we have positive risk sentiment after Asian session. In addition, the Bank of England is expected to increase its asset purchase program on Thursday to restart the engines of the lackluster UK economy.

On the downside there’s weak British construction PMI data (the index fell to 48.2 in June from 54.4 in May and below consensus of 53.0 indicating contraction of the industry). Net lending to individuals came at 1.3B in May (above 1.1B expected, but below 1.4B in April).

Analysts at Commerzbank think that the pair will retest resistance in the $1.5752/1.5786 area (200-day MA and 50% Fibonacci retracement). In this region one may also find $1.5806 (55-day MA) and $1.5771 (200-week MA). The resistance seems strong and it will likely stop the first bullish attack. If the bulls manage to overcome resistance, GBP/USD will be able to rise above $1.6000 where the specialists also see high odds of failure.

Support is at $1.5600 and $1.5485. Below these levels there’s a risk of a slide to $1.5407 and $1.5269/35 (recent minimum and 2012 minimum).

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