British Exit from EU ??

According to analysts at Nomura, Japan's biggest bank, Great Britain may leave the European Union entirely or partly as soon as in autumn.

As the euro zone’s crisis progresses, the region’s policymakers will have to take steps aimed at making the European integration closer. As a result, UK could lose its power to influence the regional policy and decide to drift from the continental Europe and even quit the European Union – in other words, commit BRIXIT (British Exit).

ECB: Draghi vs Weidmann

It seems that nationalities have a great impact on the ECB’s policymakers. The central bank meets tomorrow, but Italian central banker Mario Draghi, the ECB President, and German Jens Weidmann who heads Bundesbank have quite different opinions on how the central bank should act in the current crisis.

Draghi pledged last week that the ECB would “do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.” The market’s speculating that Draghi proposes the central bank to restart bond purchases in order to lower the borrowing costs for the troubled euro zone nations.

Weidmann made clear he loathes such move as it, according to Bundesbank would risk violating the ECB charter's ban on central-bank funding of government debt.

JP Morgan: Scenarios for EUR

Wednesday, August 1, 2012 

Analysts at JP Morgan try to clarify the load of information and different factors we have in the euro area by distinguishing scenarios of euro’s potential future moves.

According to the specialists, one may expect EUR/USD trading up and down around $1.2000 as the ECB and the Federal Reserve act.    

Roubini: 5 Reasons US growth will slow

Nouriel Roubini is ‘cheering us up’ with another article in which he prophesizes gloomy future fort the US. Well, one can’t write something optimistic after he’s officially dubbed “Dr. Doom”, can he?

Roubini gave 5 reasons why US economic growth will slow further in the second half of 2012 and be even lower in 2013:

QE3 is Possible, but...

When one thinks about the Fed these days, the most common question which comes to mind is “When?” – When will Bernanke and his colleagues finally announce QE3? It’s been already more than a year since QE2 finished and the talk about the next round has begun. The question is as pressing as it could be as the Federal Reserve announces its policy stance tomorrow. Experts answer: “Later, not tomorrow”. 

SNB’s euro holdings rose, but it reported profit

When we speak about the demand for euro, it’s necessary to remember about such a big player as the Swiss National Bank which has accumulated more than 300 billion Swiss francs ($309 billion) of foreign currencies over the last 3 years.

According to the data released today, the SNB recorded a profit 6.5 billion Swiss francs ($6.63 billion) in the first half of 2012 as the value of its foreign currency holdings increased. This reinforces the central bank’s ability to keep EUR/CHF above 1.20.

Analysts on BOJ intervention risk

Economists argue that the Bank of Japan might want to avoid USD/JPY returning to the range of 76-78 yen within which it was trading in the second half of 2011. Japanese officials have made a lot of comments speaking about their readiness to act counter volatile moves in the national currency. Yet, as it always is with Japan, it’s very difficult to judge the real intentions of the policymakers. Here’s what the analysts think.

EUR/USD 23-27 July analysis by redFX